TIPS Action Plan

June 13, 2007 by TFB

Since I wrote about TIPS yield on the rise, TIPS yield continued to climb.

If you are not familiar with Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPS, which are inflation indexed treasury bonds, please read my previous post TIPS: Inflation Linked Bonds.

I'm amazed by how much the real yield rose in a very short time. 3.0% isn't too far out of reach. Here's a chart showing the yield changes since May 1, 2007, a mere a month and half ago.

As the yields go up, TIPS become more attractive both relative to regular ("nominal") bonds and also on an absolute basis. Larry Swedroe, co-author of The Only Guide to a Winning Bond Strategy You'll Ever Need, suggested a shifting strategy toward TIPS in his book which he also shared in a post on the Bogleheads forum.

Real Yield	% of bonds in TIPS	Maturity
< 1.5%	0%	< 5 Years
1.5% – 2.0%	0 – 25%	5 Years
2.0% – 2.5%	25 – 50%	10 Years
2.5% – 3.0%	50 – 75%	15 Years
> 3.0%	75 – 100%	20 Years

I modified Mr. Swedroe's strategy table and came up with my own. Basically I'm shifting more slowly towards TIPS than what Mr. Swedroe suggested because I "require" or "demand" higher yields. Here's my plan:

Real Yield	% of bonds in TIPS	Target Maturity	Action
< 2.0%	0%	N/A	Not interested in TIPS
2.0% – 2.5%	25%	5 years	Buy 5-year
2.5% – 3.0%	50%	5 years	Buy more 5-year
3.0% – 3.5%	75%	10 years	Buy 20-year
3.5% – 4.0%	100%	15 years	Buy more 20-year
> 4.0%	100%	20 years	Sell 5-year, buy 20-year

The yields right now land in the highlighted row. I already completed my action step. I bought more 5-year TIPS when the yield reached 2.5% on June 1, albeit a little too soon in retrospect, but when I bought it there was no way of knowing whether yield reached a top.

My next milestone is 3.0%. There are two scheduled TIPS auctions in July. A 10-year new issue on July 12 and a reopened 20-year on July 24. If the yield on the 20-year TIPS reaches 3.0%, depending on how close the auction date is, I will buy more 20-year either at the auction or on the secondary market.

Software picked, likely related posts:

Keywords: bonds, TIPS
Filed under: Investing | Leave a comment

Comments

5 Comments on TIPS Action Plan

indexfundfan on June 13, 2007 | permalink

Great post! Although I am not sure if historically, TIPS has ever yielded more than 4% real rate.

I don't have much room to play with in my IRA but I shifted a significant part of the cash sitting in the Prime MMF to VIPSX in my IRA yesterday and the day before.

indexfundfan @ indextown

TFB on June 13, 2007 | permalink

"Historically" is only about 10 years for the U.S. with a big bear market in the middle, when we had really low interest rates. Who knows how high the rates can go. It's hard to extrapulate a quick spike into the future. Maybe it will keep going up; maybe it will level off; maybe it will come down quickly. We will just have to wait and see. It's impossible to time it. I'm keeping some amo just in case.

Anonymous on June 13, 2007 | permalink

When you buying TIPS, it is better to buy from Treasury direct or Vanguard VIPSX? What is thet trade off?

I don't link Treasury direct to charge $45 when you want to sell, and treasury direct only set TIPS at certain time?

TFB on June 13, 2007 | permalink

I thought I wrote about TIPS funds before but apparently not. It will be covered in the next post.

I buy TIPS in my IRA. That rules out Treasury Direct because they can't handle IRAs. I've bought both actual notes and VIPSX before. Funds like VIPSX are easier to buy and sell. Buying actual TIPS notes saves a bit of money but you have to be your own fund manager which could be headache or thrill depending on your inclination.

That's the trade off: convenience vs saving a little money, just like hiring a contractor vs DIY home repair.

Jonathan on June 17, 2007 | permalink

Interesting. I keep meaning to read Larry Swedroe's book but for some reason reading 300 pages about bonds just doesn't excite me just yet. But I wouldn't mind reading your post on buying TIPS directly vs. TIPS fund.

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