Comments on: International Markets On Sale http://thefinancebuff.com/emerging-markets-on-sale.html like a friend telling you about money ... Tue, 22 May 2012 19:53:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.2 By: TFB http://thefinancebuff.com/emerging-markets-on-sale.html#comment-837 TFB Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:32:49 +0000 http://thefinancebuff.com/2008/08/emerging-markets-on-sale.html#comment-837 arvind - I don't know where the market is going. I don't subscribe to any "system" which attempts to forecast where the market is going either. Because I have to buy <i>something</i>, I buy whatever I'm low on. See previous post <a href="http://thefinancebuff.com/2007/10/rebalancing-with-new-cash.html" rel="nofollow">Rebalance With New Cash</a>. indexfundfan - If only they remove that $3,000/year limit on income offset! arvind – I don’t know where the market is going. I don’t subscribe to any “system” which attempts to forecast where the market is going either. Because I have to buy something, I buy whatever I’m low on. See previous post Rebalance With New Cash.

indexfundfan – If only they remove that $3,000/year limit on income offset!

]]> By: indexfundfan http://thefinancebuff.com/emerging-markets-on-sale.html#comment-836 indexfundfan Wed, 20 Aug 2008 20:00:26 +0000 http://thefinancebuff.com/2008/08/emerging-markets-on-sale.html#comment-836 The fall in EAFE has kept me busy with tax-loss harvesting. I now have enough losses to offset my income for the next several years (assuming I do not have capital gains). This is one 'benefit' of a bear market. LOL. The fall in EAFE has kept me busy with tax-loss harvesting. I now have enough losses to offset my income for the next several years (assuming I do not have capital gains). This is one ‘benefit’ of a bear market. LOL.

]]> By: arvind http://thefinancebuff.com/emerging-markets-on-sale.html#comment-835 arvind Wed, 20 Aug 2008 19:20:49 +0000 http://thefinancebuff.com/2008/08/emerging-markets-on-sale.html#comment-835 But is the logic "The market will eventually have to come back up" always a good one? For instance, that logic would have backfired if we had bet on Nasdaq when it was down 20% from its late 90s highs or on Asian markets when they started to go down and eventually crashed. I am wondering if something like the "Matt Blackman" trading strategy should be used to see if indeed there is a high probability the market will eventuall come back up? The strategy specified in Wikipedia is "Matt Blackman has examined a trading strategy using P/E ratio involving staying out of the market when P/E's 2 year SMA falls below 5 year SMA. It resulted in capturing 91% of the gain by staying in the market for only 42% of the time." But is the logic “The market will eventually have to come back up” always a good one? For instance, that logic would have backfired if we had bet on Nasdaq when it was down 20% from its late 90s highs or on Asian markets when they started to go down and eventually crashed.

I am wondering if something like the “Matt Blackman” trading strategy should be used to see if indeed there is a high probability the market will eventuall come back up?

The strategy specified in Wikipedia is “Matt Blackman has examined a trading strategy using P/E ratio involving staying out of the market when P/E’s 2 year SMA falls below 5 year SMA. It resulted in capturing 91% of the gain by staying in the market for only 42% of the time.”

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