Comments on: Is It a Buying Opportunity Yet? http://thefinancebuff.com/is-it-a-buying-opportunity-yet.html like a friend telling you about money ... Wed, 23 May 2012 21:42:04 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.2 By: KD http://thefinancebuff.com/is-it-a-buying-opportunity-yet.html#comment-4104 KD Tue, 08 Jun 2010 17:51:16 +0000 http://thefinancebuff.com/2010/06/is-it-a-buying-opportunity-yet.html#comment-4104 I agree with you. The reason I made that argument is that there is no way to know the future. Just looking at the numbers is like ignoring the reality that constitutes them. Who knows, with the austerity measures in UK and other countries in Europe, the -19% may the tip of the iceberg of a massive drop. Moreover, GDP growth rates do not correlate exactly with stock market movements. Also, a second visit to March 2009 levels would certainly imply even higher unemployment rate than current. Unless one works in public sector, one's job may well be gone. So it may not be such a good idea for stocks to fall that low again in such a short time. I don't know enough stock market history. But has there been a period of falling unemployment and a falling stock market? I agree with you. The reason I made that argument is that there is no way to know the future. Just looking at the numbers is like ignoring the reality that constitutes them. Who knows, with the austerity measures in UK and other countries in Europe, the -19% may the tip of the iceberg of a massive drop. Moreover, GDP growth rates do not correlate exactly with stock market movements.

Also, a second visit to March 2009 levels would certainly imply even higher unemployment rate than current. Unless one works in public sector, one’s job may well be gone. So it may not be such a good idea for stocks to fall that low again in such a short time.

I don’t know enough stock market history. But has there been a period of falling unemployment and a falling stock market?

]]> By: TFB http://thefinancebuff.com/is-it-a-buying-opportunity-yet.html#comment-4103 TFB Tue, 08 Jun 2010 16:31:51 +0000 http://thefinancebuff.com/2010/06/is-it-a-buying-opportunity-yet.html#comment-4103 KD - Don't we all know the prices 10 years ago were in a bubble? Same as a bubble top sure isn't a buying opportunity. In this post I only tabulated how close the prices are relative to a recent market bottom. KD – Don’t we all know the prices 10 years ago were in a bubble? Same as a bubble top sure isn’t a buying opportunity. In this post I only tabulated how close the prices are relative to a recent market bottom.

]]> By: KD http://thefinancebuff.com/is-it-a-buying-opportunity-yet.html#comment-4102 KD Tue, 08 Jun 2010 15:27:19 +0000 http://thefinancebuff.com/2010/06/is-it-a-buying-opportunity-yet.html#comment-4102 One could argue that U.S. stocks are nearly at the same level as 10 yrs ago. So they are cheap. Hence buy a lot. Looking at past returns to evaluate present value is dangerous. This is not same as risky. One could argue that U.S. stocks are nearly at the same level as 10 yrs ago. So they are cheap. Hence buy a lot. Looking at past returns to evaluate present value is dangerous. This is not same as risky.

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